China's exports jump 36% in September, led by chips and cars

China's exports rose 36.3% in September from a year earlier, to $447.18 billion, according to customs data released on October 14. That was the fastest growth since February and far above the 25.5% that economists polled by Reuters had expected. Imports rose 31% to $313.65 billion, leaving a trade surplus of about $133.5 billion for the month.

In yuan terms, China's goods trade passed 5 trillion yuan in a single month for the first time. Over the first nine months of the year, total trade grew 18.8% and the surplus reached about $938 billion, which puts the full year on course to beat last year's record of about $1.2 trillion.

What drove the growth

Most of the jump came from technology and vehicles, not consumer goods. Exports of integrated circuits more than doubled in September to $44.95 billion, up 136%, partly because chip prices have risen as AI data center building continues around the world. Car exports rose 62% to $20.75 billion, and mobile phone exports rose 14.2%.

China's customs agency said equipment manufacturing accounted for nearly 90% of export growth in the first three quarters.

The Leading Exports Include:

• Integrated circuits, up 99.1% from January to September.
• Electric vehicles, up 72.3%.
• Lithium batteries, up 36.4%.
• Wind turbines and parts, up 22.4%.

Trade with the United States reached 3.18 trillion yuan over the same nine months, up 4.1%.

Pressure from trading partners

The size of the surplus is drawing attention. The European Union has been pressing Beijing to rebalance trade, and EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič met Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing on October 9. Ecaterina Bigos of BNP Paribas Asset Management said the EU effort is aimed directly at China's high value exports. Prices are also climbing at the factory gate: China's producer prices rose 3.8% in August from a year earlier.

What it means for buyers

• Busy does not mean busy everywhere. The surge is led by chips, cars and equipment. Factories making plush, pins, apparel and printed goods may still have room, so ask each supplier about its schedule rather than assuming every line is full.
• Electronics buyers should watch component costs. Higher chip prices feed into anything with a circuit board. Ask how long a quote stays valid and whether it locks in component prices.
• Expect firmer quotes. With factory gate prices rising, some suppliers may shorten quote validity or revise prices on repeat orders. Confirm prices in writing before you pay a deposit.
• Plan around Chinese New Year now. The holiday falls on February 6, 2027, and many factories close for two to four weeks around it. Production orders placed from December onward can run into that shutdown.
• EU buyers should follow the trade talks. Any new EU measures look aimed at high value goods such as vehicles and electronics, but it is worth checking the duty position of your product before you commit to large volumes.

This article is general information and not trade, legal or financial advice.

Top image: Yantian port in Shenzhen seen from above. Gigel.atat, CC BY SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Source: China's General Administration of Customs, via the Associated Press