China's factories return from Golden Week with production on the rise

China's factories reopen on October 8 after the National Day holiday, and they return on firmer footing. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, and this is the first in three months.

The detail behind the headline matters more for buyers. The production index climbed to 51.7 from 50.4, and factories bought more raw materials to keep pace. New orders held at 50.5. New export orders eased to 50.0, the line between growth and decline, so demand from overseas is steady but not surging. A private survey, the RatingDog PMI, pointed the same way with a rise to 52.1.

Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, wrote that manufacturing has been a relative strength this year, driven mostly by demand from outside China while spending at home lags, in a commentary cited by the Associated Press.

What it means for buyers

• Expect a slow first week. Lines usually take a few days to return to full speed after a seven day shutdown, and orders paused over the holiday are served first.
• Capacity is filling. Rising output and heavier purchasing suggest factories are busy. If your order is not yet confirmed, secure your production slot now.
• Count back from Lunar New Year. The next long shutdown starts around February 6, 2027, about 17 weeks away. Many factories stop accepting orders for delivery before that holiday several weeks ahead. Work backwards from your production lead time and add a buffer.
• This is not yet a seller's market. Export demand is flat, not rising, so there is usually still room to negotiate on price and payment terms.

Top image: Steve Jurvetson, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, via Xinhua